Happy belated third anniversary, TTR!

I intended to post this a week ago, but then I intend to do all kinds of things before life intervenes.

Third Tier Reality turned three on August 20. As a fan since inception, I'd like to congratulate Nando. Here's the post that started it all.

What a different world it was back in 2009! The jerks who run TLS crammed all bad news into one allowed thread and waited for an economic recovery that still hasn't come, oblivious to structural changes in the industry. David Segal's landmark Is Law School a Losing Game? was still well over a year away. Inside the Law School Scam, initially published anonymously, was still two years away. Meanwhile, contemporary scambloggers were considered bitter losers who should have studied harder and networked more.

No need to state the obvious: in incorporating attention-grabbing visual and stylistic elements, his blog stands out. That, combined with inconvenient truths (hard to argue with a 990 return, isn't it?), an endless supply of material from a scummy legal academy, and sheer persistence, has kept it going. Truthfully, my favorite thing about TTR is how much its mere existence pisses people off. There's a new blog, published by an anonymous, inarticulate simpleton, whose sole content is ad hominem attacks against Nando, that … whoops, it's gone already!

As of August 2012, the word about law school is out. Applications are down and the strongest candidates are either bargaining hard with the T14 or forgoing law school altogether. Possibly everyone who can be reached, has been reached.

"MY GOAL IS TO INFORM POTENTIAL LAW SCHOOL STUDENTS AND APPLICANTS OF THE UGLY REALITIES OF ATTENDING LAW SCHOOL."

Mission accomplished!

Are you on the right or left?

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July 2012

Writing this is like something out of Groundhog Day. There was a gain of 1,400 jobs over June 2012 and 4,500 since July 2011. For illustration, revisit the July 2011 post. Using the revised July 2011 figures, there was a gain in the neighborhood of 4,500 in both years, or 9,300 since July 2010.

I don't know how to determine how many lawyers, paralegals, and legal secretaries left the "profession," but it's an important figure, because that's the only way someone new can enter it.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

Not seasonally adjusted	July	2011	1,127,400
	May	2012	1,115,800
	June	2012	1,131,000
	July	2012	1,132,200	4,800
Seasonally adjusted	July	2011	1,116,000
	May	2012	1,119,300
	June	2012	1,119,100
	July	2012	1,120,500	4,500
Change from Jun-12 to Jul-12				1,400

MOAR Money!

There's so much stupid sh*t going on in this presTTTigious "profession" that I gave up trying to follow it, let alone post about it. Talking about not even trying any more, today's subject is Boston University's BosTTTon UniversiTTTy's new online Tax LLM. Even dry tax blogger Paul Caron noted, "Interestingly, tuition and fees for the online program will be higher than for the residential program: $44,712 v. $44,212."

Ka-Ching!

First, a word about BU. The law school hired 22 percent of its own graduates last year. With this record of suck-cess, why hide BU's light under a barrel when it can roll its brand out into new markets? And charge more to sit at your desk than its own?

Another word about BU: When it issues your LLM, is the diploma going to say either New York University or University of Florida? No? Then why the f*ck would you ever spend your own money on it? Those are the only schools that count, and NYU can even sometimes erase the stench of a prole JD.

What we have here is an unabashed money grab, presumably aimed at foreigners and the credulous. Looks like the law school scam is moving upmarket as disclosure requirements and bad publicity reduce the cash that can be extracted from aimless liberal arts grads.

Law School DeaTTTh LisTTT

A couple of scambloggers are speculating on the next school to follow Texas Wesleyan into the abyss. The criteria are the school either has to fold outright or be acquired by another educational institution. I'd like to add my own criterion that no one will miss it when it's gone.

If you guess right, you win a Kindle.

BIDER has a number of good guesses. Rutgers-Camden is in a death spiral — hopefully, it will take Rutgers-Newark with it — and Hamline is in a small, crowded market where even the University of Minnesota founders. My own guess is TJSL, based on it being a relatively new, independent law school with an expensive campus. Add bad PR and an abysmal bar passage rate and you have a winner.

June 2012

The legal industry added 200 jobs last month. The problem remains that the number of heavily-indebted JDs far exceeds job openings. As I noted in June, growth over the last two years has been negligible. Meanwhile, 45,000 JDs pour into the market each year to compete with both their own cohort and their predecessors.

The overall economy sucks, adding just 80,000 jobs. My employer's industry is sensitive to the jobless rate and my seat-of-the-pants impression in our markets is things are not getting better.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

Not seasonally adjusted	June	2011	1,123,700
	April	2012	1,113,900
	May	2012	1,115,900
	June	2012	1,132,300	8,600
Seasonally adjusted	June	2011	1,111,200
	April	2012	1,119,000
	May	2012	1,119,500
	June	2012	1,119,700	8,500
Change from May-12 to Jun-12				200

May 2012

Drat! Just woke up from a month-long map. To think I planned another blog even while I can barely keep this one updated.

Legal employment grew slightly in May, and by about 4,800 year-over-year. Before you get your seat deposit in at Dayton — hurry, dammit! — consider this. I looked back at my May 2011 post and note that May 2010 employment was 1,113,100. So, over two years we're talking about adding 7,000 jobs. I further note that the BLS regularly corrects prior statistics, and that if had used 1,115,100 instead of 1,110,400 when I posted May 2011, it would have shown modest growth over 2010 instead of a contraction. In short, we spent the last two years treading water; this is no recovery.

I have one other correction brewing. Last year I wrote, "Yale or fail." Turns out 2011 was a slaughter. How bad? From the NLJ article:

Several of the country's most prestigious law schools, including the University of Chicago Law School, New York University School of Law, the University of Virginia School of Law and Yale Law School, hired 10 percent or more of their class of 2011.

I suspect 2012 will be no better. Yale AND fail? To be continued …

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

Not seasonally adjusted	May	2011	1,111,500
	March	2012	1,110,600
	April	2012	1,114,400
	May	2012	1,116,500	5,000
Seasonally adjusted	May	2011	1,115,100
	March	2012	1,115,800
	April	2012	1,119,300
	May	2012	1,119,900	4,800
Change from Apr-12 to May-12				600