Friday, December 2, 2016

November 2016

If I'm inspired, and I probably won't be, I'll comment on this.

Not seasonally adjustedNovember20151,126,400
Seasonally adjustedNovember20151,123,800
Change from Oct-16 to

Sunday, November 27, 2016

OcTTTober 2016

One benefit to being dilatory a lazy POS is that I can watch events unfold and write about them at my leisure. Sometimes I'll have a theme for a post, start a draft, and it will be immediately obviated by the news.

Three things have happened of late.

  • Donald Trump was elected president running on a populist theme
  • Indiana Tech announced it was closing its stillborn law school
  • "Let's see — I can't. The third one, I can't. Sorry. Oops." Oh yeah: California's July bar passage hit a 32-year-low, mirroring other jurisdictions

Just so we're clear, Indiana Tech is the harbinger of nothing. The university already absorbed the substantial sunk cost of starting the school and could have limped along, augmented by offering undergraduate courses, distance learning, and luring foreign students. I've previously opined that as long as law schools keep their expenses in line with revenue — scamsizing™ as it were — they are viable indefinitely. Uncle Sam has made the academy immune to market forces and using business terms and concepts to discuss it is obfuscation. I truly believe that the State of Indiana told the university board to shitcan the school, with this as the last straw. Basically, one well-connected individual contacted one well-connected board member, maybe even in person(!), and that was all it took.

I'm not speculating; I've seen this done. The government has enough harassment tools to obtain cooperation from anyone.

When I was in law skool a long time ago I had a course on business entities. The professor, who was a partner at a large firm, described states falling over themselves to emulate Delaware law as a race-to-the-bottom. He predicted that what the legislatures gave, the courts would take back.

Fast forward to about 2013 and the inception of another race to the bottom, this time with academic credentials of admitted students. As my professor could have predicted, the state bars are digging in. Even doing nothing — leaving the exam and passing score static — is a rational option. The end result is was Indiana Tech.

That brings me to Trump. If you'd asked me last month about the 75% bar-passage requirement to be voted on February 2017 by the ABA's House of Delegates (is that presTTTigious or what?), I'd have speculated a watered-down version would be enacted. Given the overwrought reaction to Trump's election — recounts pending as I type this — I now think no effin' way. Diversity, you know?

Seriously, no sooner had the votes been counted then TTTexas legislators began pushing for yet another school! If I may quote, "[E]verybody has a law school." Does that sound like someone who's worried about the school ultimately being accredited?

Oh, and don't look for debt relief, either. Ever.

Not seasonally adjustedOctober20151,125,400
Seasonally adjustedOctober20151,123,800
Change from Sep-16 to

Sunday, November 13, 2016

SepTTTember 2016

Better late than never.

Not seasonally adjustedSeptember20151,117,000
Seasonally adjustedSeptember20151,122,800
Change from Aug-16 to

Friday, September 2, 2016

AugusTTT 2016

Only news of late is a slight rise in the average MBE score. There is speculation about the cause, but given the legal academy's penchant both for kicking the can down the road and general despicableness it likely involved shitcanning the same nitwits the school welcomed with open arms two years earlier. We'll see when they publish attrition rates and the number of first-time test takers for each school.

One commenter suggested the median score didn't change and that the increase is due to the top half of the median scoring higher while the water heads continue to flail. Again, we'll see.

Not seasonally adjustedAugust20151,121,500
Seasonally adjustedAugust20151,118,600
Change from Jul-16 to

Friday, August 5, 2016

July 2016 Great Taste, Less Filling

I'm really enjoying the overwrought debate over the ABA's proposed 75% rule and its impact on diversity. I predict the warring sides will study the issue until it goes away, ignoring the debt elephant in the room.

Not seasonally adjustedJuly20151,128,000
Seasonally adjustedJuly20151,118,900
Change from Jun-16 to

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Some lighTTT reading

Some Predict Tuition Increases Under Hillary Clinton's College Plan

WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton’s plan to allow most Americans to attend public universities at no cost could have the perverse effect of driving tuition higher as the federal government chased a tuition target that universities would simply raise at taxpayers’ expense, some experts warn.

Good article, with lots of relevant links. One of the experts quoted believes that the Federal Government will still get a good return on its investment.

Monday, July 11, 2016

June 2016

One of these years, when I'm less lazy, I'll modify my table to show figures from further back. The industry is an inert blob that eats people but stays the same size.

In other news …

A little while ago I wrote about the Feds bringing down the hammer on an accreditation agency and openly wishing they'd do the same to the ABA. Well, they did! Sort of; it's an administrative wrist slap. Things should get more interesting in the future as the ABA reiterates its commitment to educational quality, even as some of its accreditees experience wholesale bar exam failure.

Not seasonally adjustedJune20151,128,300
Seasonally adjustedJune20151,119,200
Change from May-16 to