Law applicants are VERY special snowflakes

From the National Law Journal article headed Future law school applicants are wealthier, more self-confident:

The aspiring lawyers rated themselves more highly than the typical college student regarding academic ability, public speaking, drive to achieve and tendency to socialize with students outside their own race. Of the eventual law school applicants, 87 percent reported that they had "above average" academic abilities, compared to 69 percent of all college freshman.

One of the sad things about incompetent people, besides having them as coworkers, is they don't realize they're incompetent. After the spate of bad news last week, law school administrators can relax knowing there IS a sucker born every minute, a sucker receptive to sophisticated marketing programs and who can shut out everything contrary; they're unreachable.

Granted, *successful* law applicants have better credentials than an average college graduate, but we are not dealing with future investment bankers, here. Or engineers. Or medical doctors.

These individuals are the same aimless idiots who majored in liberal arts and groupthink, took gut courses, and intend to "do" International Law. They rack up posts on TLS and patronize Scott Bullock. Armed with their 155 LSAT, they and their like-minded cohort head to some TTR sh*thole and are never heard from again unless they screw up. Some even succeed for a while, but when reality kicks them in the head, as it almost always does, the grasshopper has pissed away everything he made in biglaw and is too proud to pick himself up off the floor (see the lawyer).

Granted, if you're either connected or won the genetic lottery then you can hold your head up high. Otherwise, know that fools rush in where wise men fear to tread.

And it's only TTThursday!

Steeeerike One

"Avoiding law school in droves" - National Law Journal - January 28, 2013

Steeeerike Two

"Law Schools’ Applications Fall as Costs Rise and Jobs Are Cut" - NY Times - January 30, 2013

Steeeerike Three

Yer out!

This has been a glorious week for everyone whose business model doesn't depend on scamming law students. Two scambloggers not-easily-dismissed publications pointed out that law school applications have cratered, falling at an increasing rate, with around 54,000 lemmings applying this cycle. It took years, but the general public has finally caught on. To put things in perspective, there are around 45,000 seats at ABA schools, meaning that if you can fog a mirror then you will be accepted at one or more fully-acredited insTTTiTTTuTTTions. I am not kidding in the least.

The ABA must be so proud of itself. Anointed by the Department of Education, it has allowed this "profession" to approach a 1:1 ratio of applicants to seats. Sort of like cosmetology school except cosmetology school is a lot cheaper and state regulators more vigilant. The biggest percentage drop comes from the highest LSAT scores as the best and brightest flee and free up seats for mouthbreathers.

Some of the talking heads interviewed expect some law schools to close and most of the rest to shrink. My opinion is the academy can't bail water fast enough to save itself. It will take exactly one marginal school failing to make applicants and current students realize they need to take financial viability into account in deciding where, or even if, to matriculate. That will lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy where schools perceived as weak in fact become weak and wither and die. The push to lower cost of attendance, likely by eliminating the third year of school, will only magnify the damage. Besides students, some other interested parties will be auditors and creditors. It's hard to borrow money if you're not considered a going concern. Oh, and just like karma, those cross-default clauses are a bitch.

Knowledge is power.

May 2012

Drat! Just woke up from a month-long map. To think I planned another blog even while I can barely keep this one updated.

Legal employment grew slightly in May, and by about 4,800 year-over-year. Before you get your seat deposit in at Dayton — hurry, dammit! — consider this. I looked back at my May 2011 post and note that May 2010 employment was 1,113,100. So, over two years we're talking about adding 7,000 jobs. I further note that the BLS regularly corrects prior statistics, and that if had used 1,115,100 instead of 1,110,400 when I posted May 2011, it would have shown modest growth over 2010 instead of a contraction. In short, we spent the last two years treading water; this is no recovery.

I have one other correction brewing. Last year I wrote, "Yale or fail." Turns out 2011 was a slaughter. How bad? From the NLJ article:

Several of the country's most prestigious law schools, including the University of Chicago Law School, New York University School of Law, the University of Virginia School of Law and Yale Law School, hired 10 percent or more of their class of 2011.

I suspect 2012 will be no better. Yale AND fail? To be continued …

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

Not seasonally adjusted	May	2011	1,111,500
	March	2012	1,110,600
	April	2012	1,114,400
	May	2012	1,116,500	5,000
Seasonally adjusted	May	2011	1,115,100
	March	2012	1,115,800
	April	2012	1,119,300
	May	2012	1,119,900	4,800
Change from Apr-12 to May-12				600